Maple Groove Wealth Planners
Designed Securities Ltd.

A plain-cash valuation · Baytex Energy Corp. (TSX: BTE)

How much cash does Baytex really make, and what is a share of it worth?

Baytex produces heavy oil and light oil in Alberta and Saskatchewan, centred on Peace River and Lloydminster heavy oil and the Pembina Duvernay. It bought Ranger Oil in June 2023 to build a large Eagle Ford position in Texas, then sold the entire United States business in December 2025 for about US$2.14 billion net. What remains is a Canadian producer that averaged about 65,500 barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2025 and is guiding to 67,000 to 69,000 in 2026, with the sale proceeds having retired nearly all of its debt. This page counts only the cash that was actually left over each year, after every bill was paid and every well was drilled, then asks the only question that matters to an owner: what is one share worth, and how does that compare with the price? The rules come from the calculations economists and engineers use to decide whether a project is worth building, applied to a whole company.

figures to FY2025 · price C$6.58 (close of 28 August 2026) · all figures Canadian dollars
Every year of this cash history has been hand-checked against the company's own audited annual filings; the sources are named at the bottom of the page.
Step 1
Count only real cash
6 years of reported accounts, worked down from the "cash flow" in the headlines to the cash that was truly left for owners after every well was drilled.
Step 2
Project it forward
Start from the average of the history, or the latest year. Grow it at the dial you set for ten years, then at a long-run rate for as long as the wells keep producing.
Step 3
Bring it back to today
A dollar arriving in ten years is worth less than a dollar now. Your required return sets how much less.
Step 4
Compare it with the price
Take off the debt and the clean-up cost, add anything the business owns but does not need, divide by the shares. That number against C$6.58 is the whole story.
What one share is worth on your settings: the most you could pay today and still earn your required return
$7.20per share, C$
Around fair value
Paying far more than it is worthPrice equals value at C$6.58Buying well below value
Today's share price, close of 28 August 2026
C$6.58
708.9M shares · C$4.7B in total
What you gain or lose buying at C$6.58
$0.62
value minus price, in today's dollars; a minus sign means you are paying more than the cash is worth
The growth today's price assumes
+2.3% a year
ten years of growth in real cash that makes this start worth exactly C$6.58
When you get your money back, with your return
10 years (2035)
years until the cash you receive repays C$6.58 plus your required return
Your dials
-5%051020%
-4% declining0 flat+3%
6%89 typical1214%
How long the wells keep producing
Well life set to 11 years, the proved plus probable reserves.

What Baytex really earned, and what you are assuming it will earn

Solid bars are reported history: the real cash left each year after every bill was paid and every well was drilled. Negative years are when the owners put cash in; positive years are when it came back out. Striped bars are your projection.

Owners put cash in (a negative year)Real cash left for ownersYour projectionDividends and buybacks (when shown)
00.2B0.4B0.6B0.8B1BC$reportedprojected2020202520302035C$831MC$858M
Table view: every year, C$ millions
YearStatusReal cash leftPer share
2020reported167.0$0.30
2021reported487.0$0.85
2022reported730.7$1.30
2023reported420.2$0.60
2024reported831.0$1.03
2025reported428.7$0.56
2026projected602.7$0.85
2027projected626.8$0.88
2028projected651.9$0.92
2029projected678.0$0.96
2030projected705.1$0.99
2031projected733.3$1.03
2032projected762.6$1.08
2033projected793.1$1.12
2034projected824.8$1.16
2035projected857.8$1.21
2036projected857.8$1.21

If you bought one share today

The red bar is what you pay. Yellow years pay you back, including the return you asked for. Green years are pure profit on top. If there is no green, you paid more than the cash is worth.

What you payPaying you back, with your returnProfit on top
−$8−$6−$4−$2$0$2buyyr 5yr 10−$6.58 paid

You get your C$6.58 back, with your 9.0% return, in year 10 (2035); 1 profitable years follow. Buying at C$6.58 gains you $0.62 a share in today's dollars.

What a share is worth under different assumptions

Your required return down the side, ten-year growth across the top. Your current setting is outlined; the dashed cells are within 10% of today's price. Blue means worth more than C$6.58, red means worth less.

return \ growth
-4%
-2%
0%
+2%
+4%
+6%
+8%
+10%
+12%
6%
$5
$6
$7
$7
$8
$9
$10
$12
$13
7%
$5
$6
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
$11
$12
8%
$5
$6
$6
$7
$8
$8
$9
$10
$12
9%
$5
$5
$6
$6
$7
$8
$9
$10
$11
10%
$5
$5
$6
$6
$7
$8
$8
$9
$10
11%
$4
$5
$5
$6
$7
$7
$8
$9
$10
12%
$4
$5
$5
$6
$6
$7
$8
$9
$9
13%
$4
$5
$5
$6
$6
$7
$7
$8
$9

Growth after year 10, the well life, the starting point and the switches above all carry through. Every cell is the same arithmetic as the big number at the top.

Three honest answers from the same cash

Three answers from the same accounts and the same arithmetic, at your required return, long-run growth and well life. The gap between them is the growth you choose to believe in, and nothing else.

Floor: if it never grows again
The 5-year average of real cash with the growth dial at zero: ten flat years, then your long-run dial. This is the floor if the business never grows again.
✕$5.87
per share · -11% versus the C$6.58 price
Anything paid above this number is paying for growth that has not been demonstrated yet.
Base: the default settings
The same 5-year average of real cash, grown 4.0% a year for ten years. The 4% default is the middle of Baytex's 2026 guidance of 3% to 5% organic production growth on its Canadian assets, with an exit rate near 70,000 Boe/d.
≈$7.20
per share · +9% versus the C$6.58 price
To get here you have to believe 4.0% a year holds for a full decade. Move the dials to your own numbers.
The latest year, projected
The most recent year's real cash (2025), grown at the default 4.0% a year. A single year can flatter or punish a producer; the bars above show where it sits in the cycle.
✕$5.34
per share · -19% versus the C$6.58 price
One year of cash rides on one year's prices; the averages smooth the cycle.

From the reported figures to the cash in the bank, FY2025

Reported profit is an accountant's number, and the "cash flow" companies quote usually leaves the drilling out. Here the reported figures are worked down to the cash that was actually left after every bill and every well. Figures in C$ millions.

FY2025, C$ millions
Profit, as reported (the headline number)−603.8
Cash generated by operations, as reported1,486.0
+ Interest paid, put back202.5
− Rent on leases−13.3
− Every dollar spent on wells and plants−1,246.5
= Real cash left for owners428.7
Per share (769.2M diluted)$0.56
For comparison: dividends paid in 202569.2
For comparison: buybacks in 202529.4
For comparison: assets bought and sold, net−3,009.7

What we take out, and why

  • Depreciation, depletion and every other paper charge: accountants spread the cost of past drilling over years. We ignore that and count the cash actually spent on wells and plants in the year it went out, so nothing is counted twice.
  • Interest paid: put back. Interest is the price of borrowed money, and your required return already charges for the price of money, so every company is judged the same way whether it borrows or not.
  • Rent on leases: small and short leases are treated as a cost of producing, like fuel.
  • Every dollar spent on wells and plants: taken out in full, including the drilling that grows production. That spending buys the future cash the dials project, so it is counted where it happens.

What 6 years of accounts say

Every line the model uses, every year, with the latest year highlighted. Dividends and buybacks are shown as money leaving for owners.

Every year, C$ millions

C$ millions202020212022202320242025
Profit, as reported−2,439.01,613.6855.6−233.4236.6−603.8
Cash generated by operations, as reported353.1712.41,172.91,295.71,908.31,486.0
+ Interest paid, put back102.493.184.2153.2200.2202.5
− Rent on leases−5.9−4.3−3.7−11.5−15.5−13.3
− Spent on wells and plants−282.6−314.2−522.7−1,017.2−1,262.0−1,246.5
= Real cash left for owners167.0487.0730.7420.2831.0428.7
Real cash per share, C$$0.30$0.85$1.30$0.60$1.03$0.56
Assets bought and sold, net−0.2−6.2−24.3541.25.9−3,009.7
Dividends paid0.00.00.0−37.5−72.0−69.2
Buybacks0.00.0−159.0−221.9−222.2−29.4
Debt after cash, year end1,793.21,387.5931.72,384.72,265.3−835.1
Shares, millions (diluted average)560.7571.6563.8704.9807.7769.2
Production, barrels of oil equivalent a day79,78180,15683,519122,154153,048145,079

How the maths works, and what to be careful about

The words on this page

Real cash (true cash)
What was left in the bank each year after every bill, every tax payment and every well drilled. Not profit, and not "cash flow" as companies usually quote it, which leaves the drilling out. The strictest number there is.
Required return
The yearly return you insist on for taking the risk. A dollar promised in ten years is worth less than a dollar today; this rate says how much less. 9% is a common professional figure for a large Canadian producer; the reserve engineers use 10%.
Well life (reserve life)
How long the wells keep producing. After the life you choose, nothing is counted. Year-end 2025 Canadian reserves were 151 million Boe proved and 282 million proved plus probable. At the 2026 guidance midpoint of 68,000 Boe/d that is about 6 and 11 years; Baytex quotes an 11.5 year reserve life on proved plus probable.
What a share is worth
Every future year's cash, shrunk back to today's dollars at your required return, added up, less the debt, less the cost of cleaning up the wells, divided by the number of shares. Pay less than this and you earn more than your required return; pay more and you earn less.
Where the default growth comes from
The 4% default is the middle of Baytex's 2026 guidance of 3% to 5% organic production growth on its Canadian assets, with an exit rate near 70,000 Boe/d.

The arithmetic, step by step

  1. Count the real cash each past year: cash generated by operations as reported, plus interest paid put back, minus rent on leases, minus every dollar spent on wells and plants. Buying and selling assets is shown separately.
  2. Project it. The starting cash you choose (an average of the history, or the latest year) grows at your growth dial for ten years, then at the long-run rate for as long as the wells keep producing. Nothing is counted after the well life ends.
  3. Bring it back to today. Each year's cash is shrunk by your required return, counted at mid-year because cash arrives through the year rather than on 31 December.
  4. Turn it into a share value. Add up the shrunk cash; take off net debt of C$−566M; take off the C$524M cost of cleaning up the wells if that switch is on; divide by 708.9M shares.
  5. Work it backwards. "The growth today's price assumes" is the ten-year growth rate at which this start is worth exactly the share price.

Where the numbers come from

  • The aggregator's free statements carry only the 2020 to 2025 fiscal years, short of the model's preferred ten, so the starting cash selector defaults to the five-year average.
  • The history spans two big portfolio turns: the Ranger acquisition of June 2023 (the acquisition line shows the $662.6 million cash portion plus $38.9 million of property acquisitions, net of $160.3 million of dispositions; most of the Ranger price was paid in new shares, which is why the share count jumps that year) and the sale of the whole Eagle Ford business on 19 December 2025 for about $3.0 billion.
  • Production and cash flow through 2025 include the Eagle Ford, which produced over half of company volumes; the go-forward Canadian business is roughly half the size, so the historical true cash overstates the base the growth dial now applies to.
  • The large 2025 net loss is mostly accounting effects of the United States exit, including the loss on sale, not operating cash.
  • Lease payments are the audited payments on lease obligations from the financing section, between $3.7 million and $15.5 million a year.
  • Capital spending is the sum of the audited additions lines in investing: exploration and evaluation, oil and gas properties, other plant and equipment, and in 2025 the $38.1 million of additions to assets held for sale (Eagle Ford spending before the sale closed). Small property acquisitions sit in the acquisitions line instead, and the 2025 acquisitions line also nets the buyer's $23.3 million of advances for the assets held for sale.
  • Net debt in the history is total debt plus lease obligations minus cash; the audited balance sheets reproduce the 2024 and 2025 figures exactly on that basis, and cash was nil at year-end 2021 as filed, so that year is total debt outright. Baytex's own net cash measure was $765.8 million at year-end 2025, and the current figure is the company's measure of $566.3 million net cash at 30 June 2026.
  • The share count of 708.9 million is the common shares outstanding at 30 June 2026 per the second quarter 2026 report; heavy buybacks through 2026 have already cut it well below the 2025 average and were continuing after the quarter.
  • Analyst targets: average C$7.73 across 11 analysts (stockanalysis.com, 30 August 2026).

For the technically minded

The method is the one used to evaluate capital projects, from Ted Lawrence, The Business Guide to Economic Evaluations: Projects, Leases, Tariffs and Acquisitions (2017). "Real cash" is the book's project cash flow (chapter 3) with depreciation, debt servicing and debt-like leases restructured out (chapters 4, 5 and 19); short operating leases stay in as a cost of producing, a chapter 19 judgment. The value per share follows the share-purchase evaluation of chapter 20: present value of the company's cash flows at the cost of capital (chapter 10), mid-year discounting (chapter 12), plus non-required assets, less net debt and the decommissioning liability. "What you gain or lose" is the bid-curve NPV of chapter 20; "when you get your money back" is the discounted payout of chapter 13; the bars follow the project profile of chapter 6. The reverse solve on growth is a plain reverse DCF.

Discount-rate anchors: 9% is a common cost-of-equity figure for a large Canadian producer and 10% is the reserve-report convention (PV10). The long-run rate defaults to 0% here: a depleting resource should not be assumed to grow forever, so anything above zero is a judgment you make with the dial.

Sources

Maple Groove Wealth Planners · prepared by Trevor Lawrence, Financial Advisor · every number on this page traces to the sources listed above or a dial you can see. For education, not investment advice.

This page illustrates a research process and is provided for general information only. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are as at the dates shown and will change. Shares carry risk, including the possible loss of capital. Please speak with a qualified advisor about your own circumstances.