Maple Groove Wealth Planners
Designed Securities Ltd.

A plain-cash valuation · Greenfire Resources Ltd. (TSX: GFR)

How much cash does Greenfire really make, and what is a share of it worth?

Greenfire Resources is a thermal oil sands producer at Hangingstone, south of Fort McMurray, producing bitumen from SAGD facilities it acquired in 2021. Production averaged 16,169 barrels a day in 2025, and in August 2026 it closed the 1.3 billion dollar all-cash purchase of Connacher Oil and Gas, whose adjacent Great Divide project lifts the combined company to roughly 34,000 barrels a day with a long-term target of 65,000. Waterous Energy Fund controls about half the shares and installed the current board and management in late 2024. This page counts only the cash that was actually left over each year, after every bill was paid and every well was drilled, then asks the only question that matters to an owner: what is one share worth, and how does that compare with the price? The rules come from the calculations economists and engineers use to decide whether a project is worth building, applied to a whole company.

figures to FY2025 · price C$8.43 (close of 28 August 2026) · all figures Canadian dollars
Every year of this cash history has been hand-checked against the company's own audited annual filings; the sources are named at the bottom of the page.
Step 1
Count only real cash
5 years of reported accounts, worked down from the "cash flow" in the headlines to the cash that was truly left for owners after every well was drilled.
Step 2
Project it forward
Start from the average of the history, or the latest year. Grow it at the dial you set for ten years, then at a long-run rate for as long as the wells keep producing.
Step 3
Bring it back to today
A dollar arriving in ten years is worth less than a dollar now. Your required return sets how much less.
Step 4
Compare it with the price
Take off the debt and the clean-up cost, add anything the business owns but does not need, divide by the shares. That number against C$8.43 is the whole story.
What one share is worth on your settings: the most you could pay today and still earn your required return
$0.72per share, C$
Price far above value
Paying far more than it is worthPrice equals value at C$8.43Buying well below value
Today's share price, close of 28 August 2026
C$8.43
125.43M shares · C$1.1B in total
What you gain or lose buying at C$8.43
−$7.71
value minus price, in today's dollars; a minus sign means you are paying more than the cash is worth
The growth today's price assumes
+12.4% a year
ten years of growth in real cash that makes this start worth exactly C$8.43
When you get your money back, with your return
15 years (2040)
years until the cash you receive repays C$8.43 plus your required return
Your dials
-5%051020%
-4% declining0 flat+3%
6%89 typical1214%
How long the wells keep producing
Well life set to 30 years, the proved reserves only.

What Greenfire really earned, and what you are assuming it will earn

Solid bars are reported history: the real cash left each year after every bill was paid and every well was drilled. Negative years are when the owners put cash in; positive years are when it came back out. Striped bars are your projection.

Owners put cash in (a negative year)Real cash left for ownersYour projectionDividends and buybacks (when shown)
00.1B0.1B0.2B0.2BC$reportedprojected20212025203020352040204520502055C$176MC$153M
Table view: every year, C$ millions
YearStatusReal cash leftPer share
2021reported29.3$0.61
2022reported176.2$2.52
2023reported93.0$1.71
2024reported99.9$1.40
2025reported71.7$0.99
2026projected98.7$0.79
2027projected103.7$0.83
2028projected108.9$0.87
2029projected114.3$0.91
2030projected120.0$0.96
2031projected126.0$1.00
2032projected132.3$1.05
2033projected138.9$1.11
2034projected145.9$1.16
2035projected153.2$1.22
2036projected153.2$1.22
2037projected153.2$1.22
2038projected153.2$1.22
2039projected153.2$1.22
2040projected153.2$1.22
2041projected153.2$1.22
2042projected153.2$1.22
2043projected153.2$1.22
2044projected153.2$1.22
2045projected153.2$1.22
2046projected153.2$1.22
2047projected153.2$1.22
2048projected153.2$1.22
2049projected153.2$1.22
2050projected153.2$1.22
2051projected153.2$1.22
2052projected153.2$1.22
2053projected153.2$1.22
2054projected153.2$1.22
2055projected153.2$1.22

If you bought one share today

The red bar is what you pay. Yellow years pay you back, including the return you asked for. Green years are pure profit on top. If there is no green, you paid more than the cash is worth.

What you payPaying you back, with your returnProfit on top
−$10−$8−$6−$4−$2$0$2buyyr 5yr 10yr 15yr 20yr 25yr 30−$8.43 paid

You get your C$8.43 back, with your 9.0% return, in year 15 (2040); 15 profitable years follow. Buying at C$8.43 loses you $7.71 a share in today's dollars.

What a share is worth under different assumptions

Your required return down the side, ten-year growth across the top. Your current setting is outlined; the dashed cells are within 10% of today's price. Blue means worth more than C$8.43, red means worth less.

return \ growth
-4%
-2%
0%
+2%
+4%
+6%
+8%
+10%
+12%
6%
$-3
$-1
$0
$2
$4
$6
$9
$12
$15
7%
$-3
$-2
$-1
$1
$2
$4
$7
$9
$12
8%
$-4
$-3
$-2
$-1
$1
$3
$5
$7
$10
9%
$-4
$-4
$-3
$-1
$0
$2
$3
$5
$8
10%
$-5
$-4
$-3
$-2
$-1
$0
$2
$4
$6
11%
$-5
$-5
$-4
$-3
$-2
$0
$1
$3
$5
12%
$-6
$-5
$-4
$-3
$-2
$-1
$0
$2
$3
13%
$-6
$-5
$-5
$-4
$-3
$-2
$-1
$1
$2

Growth after year 10, the well life, the starting point and the switches above all carry through. Every cell is the same arithmetic as the big number at the top.

Three honest answers from the same cash

Three answers from the same accounts and the same arithmetic, at your required return, long-run growth and well life. The gap between them is the growth you choose to believe in, and nothing else.

Floor: if it never grows again
The 5-year average of real cash with the growth dial at zero: ten flat years, then your long-run dial. This is the floor if the business never grows again.
✕−$2.56
per share · -130% versus the C$8.43 price
Anything paid above this number is paying for growth that has not been demonstrated yet.
Base: the default settings
The same 5-year average of real cash, grown 5.0% a year for ten years. Greenfire's 2026 guidance of 21,500 to 23,500 bbl/d averages in only five post-close months of Connacher; the combined company runs near 34,000 bbl/d today against a 65,000 target. The dial starts at 5 per cent, but note that the cash history behind the start value excludes Connacher entirely while the debt that bought it is fully counted.
✕$0.72
per share · -91% versus the C$8.43 price
To get here you have to believe 5.0% a year holds for a full decade. Move the dials to your own numbers.
The latest year, projected
The most recent year's real cash (2025), grown at the default 5.0% a year. A single year can flatter or punish a producer; the bars above show where it sits in the cycle.
✕−$1.96
per share · -123% versus the C$8.43 price
One year of cash rides on one year's prices; the averages smooth the cycle.

From the reported figures to the cash in the bank, FY2025

Reported profit is an accountant's number, and the "cash flow" companies quote usually leaves the drilling out. Here the reported figures are worked down to the cash that was actually left after every bill and every well. Figures in C$ millions.

FY2025, C$ millions
Profit, as reported (the headline number)47.5
Cash generated by operations, as reported136.5
+ Interest paid, put back51.3
− Rent on leases−4.3
− Every dollar spent on wells and plants−111.8
= Real cash left for owners71.7
Per share (72.476M diluted)$0.99
For comparison: dividends paid in 20250.0
For comparison: buybacks in 20250.0
For comparison: assets bought and sold, net0.0

What we take out, and why

  • Depreciation, depletion and every other paper charge: accountants spread the cost of past drilling over years. We ignore that and count the cash actually spent on wells and plants in the year it went out, so nothing is counted twice.
  • Interest paid: put back. Interest is the price of borrowed money, and your required return already charges for the price of money, so every company is judged the same way whether it borrows or not.
  • Rent on leases: small and short leases are treated as a cost of producing, like fuel.
  • Every dollar spent on wells and plants: taken out in full, including the drilling that grows production. That spending buys the future cash the dials project, so it is counted where it happens.

What 5 years of accounts say

Every line the model uses, every year, with the latest year highlighted. Dividends and buybacks are shown as money leaving for owners.

Every year, C$ millions

C$ millions20212022202320242025
Profit, as reported661.4131.7−135.7121.447.5
Cash generated by operations, as reported32.0164.786.5144.5136.5
+ Interest paid, put back1.951.140.049.751.3
− Rent on leases0.0−0.0−0.1−6.9−4.3
− Spent on wells and plants−4.6−39.6−33.4−87.4−111.8
= Real cash left for owners29.3176.293.099.971.7
Real cash per share, C$$0.61$2.52$1.71$1.40$0.99
Assets bought and sold, net359.50.00.04.40.0
Dividends paid0.00.0−59.40.00.0
Buybacks0.00.0−41.50.00.0
Debt after cash, year end264.7220.0280.6270.8−35.9
Shares, millions (diluted average)48.169.954.471.672.5
Production, barrels of oil equivalent a day28,93720,50317,63919,29216,169

How the maths works, and what to be careful about

The words on this page

Real cash (true cash)
What was left in the bank each year after every bill, every tax payment and every well drilled. Not profit, and not "cash flow" as companies usually quote it, which leaves the drilling out. The strictest number there is.
Required return
The yearly return you insist on for taking the risk. A dollar promised in ten years is worth less than a dollar today; this rate says how much less. 9% is a common professional figure for a large Canadian producer; the reserve engineers use 10%.
Well life (reserve life)
How long the wells keep producing. After the life you choose, nothing is counted. Greenfire's own year-end 2025 report shows 408.9 million barrels of proved plus probable reserves (231.8 million proved), about 69 years at 2025's 16,169 bbl/d. Adding Connacher's 441 million barrels of 2P gives roughly 850 million barrels against a current combined rate near 34,000 bbl/d, about 68 years. The model caps the life at 30 years either way.
What a share is worth
Every future year's cash, shrunk back to today's dollars at your required return, added up, less the debt, less the cost of cleaning up the wells, divided by the number of shares. Pay less than this and you earn more than your required return; pay more and you earn less.
Where the default growth comes from
Greenfire's 2026 guidance of 21,500 to 23,500 bbl/d averages in only five post-close months of Connacher; the combined company runs near 34,000 bbl/d today against a 65,000 target. The dial starts at 5 per cent, but note that the cash history behind the start value excludes Connacher entirely while the debt that bought it is fully counted.

The arithmetic, step by step

  1. Count the real cash each past year: cash generated by operations as reported, plus interest paid put back, minus rent on leases, minus every dollar spent on wells and plants. Buying and selling assets is shown separately.
  2. Project it. The starting cash you choose (an average of the history, or the latest year) grows at your growth dial for ten years, then at the long-run rate for as long as the wells keep producing. Nothing is counted after the well life ends.
  3. Bring it back to today. Each year's cash is shrunk by your required return, counted at mid-year because cash arrives through the year rather than on 31 December.
  4. Turn it into a share value. Add up the shrunk cash; take off net debt of C$1,310M; take off the C$20M cost of cleaning up the wells if that switch is on; divide by 125.43M shares.
  5. Work it backwards. "The growth today's price assumes" is the ten-year growth rate at which this start is worth exactly the share price.

Where the numbers come from

  • Treat this model with unusual care: it is the least settled company on the roster. The five-year cash record is entirely pre-Connacher, while netDebtNow carries the full 1,297 million cash price of Connacher, which closed on 5 August 2026. The start value therefore understates the combined business and the debt overstates what will remain after the planned rights offering.
  • netDebtNow of about 1,310 million is an estimate: 13.5 million of net debt at 30 June 2026 plus the 1,297 million paid for Connacher from a drawn reserves-based loan and a 575 million bridge facility. Greenfire intends to repay the bridge with a rights offering backstopped by Waterous Energy Fund; when that closes, debt falls by up to 575 million but the share count rises materially from the 125.4 million used here, on terms not yet announced at capture date.
  • Only five fiscal years exist and 2021 is a stub: the predecessor closed its Hangingstone acquisitions in September 2021, so 2021 cash flow covers a partial period and the 661 million of net income is mostly a one-time gain on acquisition. The 2021 production figure of 28,937 bbl/d is the combined-assets rate Greenfire itself reports for that year, not a full-ownership average, and production is bitumen barrels, not boe.
  • The 2023 dividend and buyback are one-time payments in the September 2023 SPAC listing and recapitalization (a 59.4 million distribution and 41.5 million of shares repurchased from pre-listing owners), not a shareholder-return policy; 2023 also carries a 106.5 million non-cash listing expense inside the net loss.
  • Interest is cash interest paid as disclosed in the supplemental cash flow information of the audited statements ($1.9 million in 2021, $51.1 million in 2022, $40.0 million in 2023, $49.7 million in 2024 and $51.3 million in 2025), and it sits inside reported operating cash flow, so the true cash formula adds it back. For most of the record it reflects 12 per cent senior secured notes, all redeemed on 19 December 2025 after a roughly 300 million rights offering, which is why 2025 ends debt-free before Connacher. Non-cash amortization of issuance costs and the cash redemption premiums paid on early debt retirement are not in this line.
  • Governance changed hands mid-record: Waterous Energy Fund built a roughly 43 per cent position in late 2024, the board was reconstituted and management replaced that December, and the strategy shifted from debt paydown under the SPAC-era team to consolidation under Waterous (the December 2025 rights offering, the notes redemption and the Connacher purchase all followed). Figures before and after that change reflect different management.
  • Weighted average share counts for 2021 and 2022 are the predecessor's, recast at the SPAC exchange ratio; 2025's 72.5 million weighted average is far below the 125.4 million now outstanding because the December 2025 rights offering landed mid-month.
  • The decommissioning liability shown is Greenfire's own 19.9 million at year end 2025 and excludes Connacher's Great Divide obligations, which had not been consolidated in any published balance sheet at capture date.
  • No analyst consensus is shown because the aggregator's forecast page for GFR was unavailable at capture date.

For the technically minded

The method is the one used to evaluate capital projects, from Ted Lawrence, The Business Guide to Economic Evaluations: Projects, Leases, Tariffs and Acquisitions (2017). "Real cash" is the book's project cash flow (chapter 3) with depreciation, debt servicing and debt-like leases restructured out (chapters 4, 5 and 19); short operating leases stay in as a cost of producing, a chapter 19 judgment. The value per share follows the share-purchase evaluation of chapter 20: present value of the company's cash flows at the cost of capital (chapter 10), mid-year discounting (chapter 12), plus non-required assets, less net debt and the decommissioning liability. "What you gain or lose" is the bid-curve NPV of chapter 20; "when you get your money back" is the discounted payout of chapter 13; the bars follow the project profile of chapter 6. The reverse solve on growth is a plain reverse DCF.

Discount-rate anchors: 9% is a common cost-of-equity figure for a large Canadian producer and 10% is the reserve-report convention (PV10). The long-run rate defaults to 0% here: a depleting resource should not be assumed to grow forever, so anything above zero is a judgment you make with the dial.

Sources

Maple Groove Wealth Planners · prepared by Trevor Lawrence, Financial Advisor · every number on this page traces to the sources listed above or a dial you can see. For education, not investment advice.

This page illustrates a research process and is provided for general information only. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are as at the dates shown and will change. Shares carry risk, including the possible loss of capital. Please speak with a qualified advisor about your own circumstances.