Maple Groove Wealth Planners
Designed Securities Ltd.

A plain-cash valuation · Parex Resources Inc. (TSX: PXT)

How much cash does Parex really make, and what is a share of it worth?

Parex is a Calgary-listed company whose wells are all in Colombia, where it became the country's largest independent producer by buying Frontera Energy's oil assets for US$500 million in June 2026, roughly doubling production to a guided 82,000 to 91,000 boe per day for the second half of 2026. Every dollar it earns depends on one country: Colombian tax policy, pipeline security, community blockades and licensing pauses have all interrupted its fields before, and that risk never goes away. The history below shows the smaller, debt-free Parex; the company you would buy today carries about US$907 million of net debt taken on for the deal. This page counts only the cash that was actually left over each year, after every bill was paid and every well was drilled, then asks the only question that matters to an owner: what is one share worth, and how does that compare with the price? The rules come from the calculations economists and engineers use to decide whether a project is worth building, applied to a whole company.

figures to FY2025 · price US$20.08 (close of 28 August 2026) · all figures US dollars · Parex reports in US dollars, so every money figure on this page is US$. Its TSX close of C$27.88 on 28 August 2026 converts to US$20.08 at the Bank of Canada daily rate of 1.3888 for that date.
Every year of this cash history has been hand-checked against the company's own audited annual filings; the sources are named at the bottom of the page.
Step 1
Count only real cash
8 years of reported accounts, worked down from the "cash flow" in the headlines to the cash that was truly left for owners after every well was drilled.
Step 2
Project it forward
Start from the average of the history, or the latest year. Grow it at the dial you set for ten years, then at a long-run rate for as long as the wells keep producing.
Step 3
Bring it back to today
A dollar arriving in ten years is worth less than a dollar now. Your required return sets how much less.
Step 4
Compare it with the price
Take off the debt and the clean-up cost, add anything the business owns but does not need, divide by the shares. That number against US$20.08 is the whole story.
What one share is worth on your settings: the most you could pay today and still earn your required return
$4.12per share, US$
Price far above value
Paying far more than it is worthPrice equals value at US$20.08Buying well below value
Today's share price, close of 28 August 2026
US$20.08
96.2M shares · US$1.9B in total
What you gain or lose buying at US$20.08
−$15.96
value minus price, in today's dollars; a minus sign means you are paying more than the cash is worth
The growth today's price assumes
+17.9% a year
ten years of growth in real cash that makes this start worth exactly US$20.08
When you get your money back, with your return
not within the well life
years until the cash you receive repays US$20.08 plus your required return
Your dials
-5%051020%
-4% declining0 flat+3%
6%89 typical1214%
How long the wells keep producing
Well life set to 10 years, the proved plus probable reserves.

What Parex really earned, and what you are assuming it will earn

Solid bars are reported history: the real cash left each year after every bill was paid and every well was drilled. Negative years are when the owners put cash in; positive years are when it came back out. Striped bars are your projection.

Owners put cash in (a negative year)Real cash left for ownersYour projectionDividends and buybacks (when shown)
-0.2B-0.1B00.1B0.2B0.3B0.4B0.5BUS$reportedprojected20182020202520302035US$471MUS$313M
Table view: every year, US$ millions
YearStatusReal cash leftPer share
2018reported230.8$1.42
2019reported156.3$1.06
2020reported147.8$1.10
2021reported256.4$2.04
2022reported470.6$4.14
2023reported−107.5−$1.01
2024reported225.8$2.23
2025reported116.5$1.20
2026projected202.0$2.10
2027projected212.1$2.20
2028projected222.7$2.31
2029projected233.8$2.43
2030projected245.5$2.55
2031projected257.8$2.68
2032projected270.7$2.81
2033projected284.2$2.95
2034projected298.4$3.10
2035projected313.3$3.26

If you bought one share today

The red bar is what you pay. Yellow years pay you back, including the return you asked for. Green years are pure profit on top. If there is no green, you paid more than the cash is worth.

What you payPaying you back, with your returnProfit on top
−$25−$20−$15−$10−$5$0$5buyyr 5yr 10−$20.08 paid

At these settings you never get US$20.08 back with a 9.0% return within 10 years. Buying at US$20.08 loses you $15.96 a share in today's dollars.

What a share is worth under different assumptions

Your required return down the side, ten-year growth across the top. Your current setting is outlined; the dashed cells are within 10% of today's price. Blue means worth more than US$20.08, red means worth less.

return \ growth
-4%
-2%
0%
+2%
+4%
+6%
+8%
+10%
+12%
6%
$-1
$1
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$15
7%
$-1
$0
$2
$3
$5
$7
$9
$11
$14
8%
$-1
$0
$1
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$13
9%
$-2
$-1
$0
$2
$3
$5
$7
$9
$11
10%
$-2
$-1
$0
$1
$3
$4
$6
$8
$10
11%
$-3
$-2
$-1
$1
$2
$4
$5
$7
$9
12%
$-3
$-2
$-1
$0
$1
$3
$4
$6
$8
13%
$-3
$-2
$-1
$0
$1
$2
$4
$5
$7

Growth after year 10, the well life, the starting point and the switches above all carry through. Every cell is the same arithmetic as the big number at the top.

Three honest answers from the same cash

Three answers from the same accounts and the same arithmetic, at your required return, long-run growth and well life. The gap between them is the growth you choose to believe in, and nothing else.

Floor: if it never grows again
The 5-year average of real cash with the growth dial at zero: ten flat years, then your long-run dial. This is the floor if the business never grows again.
✕$0.42
per share · -98% versus the US$20.08 price
Anything paid above this number is paying for growth that has not been demonstrated yet.
Base: the default settings
The same 5-year average of real cash, grown 5.0% a year for ten years. The default 5 percent reflects the Frontera acquisition roughly doubling second-half 2026 production guidance to 82,000 to 91,000 boe/d against 44,701 boe/d averaged in 2025, tempered hard for steep Colombian decline rates and the debt the deal added.
✕$4.12
per share · -79% versus the US$20.08 price
To get here you have to believe 5.0% a year holds for a full decade. Move the dials to your own numbers.
The latest year, projected
The most recent year's real cash (2025), grown at the default 5.0% a year. A single year can flatter or punish a producer; the bars above show where it sits in the cycle.
✕−$2.62
per share · -113% versus the US$20.08 price
One year of cash rides on one year's prices; the averages smooth the cycle.

From the reported figures to the cash in the bank, FY2025

Reported profit is an accountant's number, and the "cash flow" companies quote usually leaves the drilling out. Here the reported figures are worked down to the cash that was actually left after every bill and every well. Figures in US$ millions.

FY2025, US$ millions
Profit, as reported (the headline number)255.1
Cash generated by operations, as reported424.8
+ Interest paid, put back2.8
− Rent on leases−0.8
− Every dollar spent on wells and plants−310.3
= Real cash left for owners116.5
Per share (97.2M diluted)$1.20
For comparison: dividends paid in 2025107.7
For comparison: buybacks in 202526.5
For comparison: assets bought and sold, net16.0

What we take out, and why

  • Depreciation, depletion and every other paper charge: accountants spread the cost of past drilling over years. We ignore that and count the cash actually spent on wells and plants in the year it went out, so nothing is counted twice.
  • Interest paid: put back. Interest is the price of borrowed money, and your required return already charges for the price of money, so every company is judged the same way whether it borrows or not.
  • Rent on leases: small and short leases are treated as a cost of producing, like fuel.
  • Every dollar spent on wells and plants: taken out in full, including the drilling that grows production. That spending buys the future cash the dials project, so it is counted where it happens.

What 8 years of accounts say

Every line the model uses, every year, with the latest year highlighted. Dividends and buybacks are shown as money leaving for owners.

Every year, US$ millions

US$ millions20182019202020212022202320242025
Profit, as reported402.9328.099.3303.1611.4459.360.7255.1
Cash generated by operations, as reported531.6365.1290.0534.3983.6376.5569.9424.8
+ Interest paid, put back1.50.00.00.00.00.04.32.8
− Rent on leases0.0−0.6−0.9−0.7−0.7−0.7−0.7−0.8
− Spent on wells and plants−302.3−208.2−141.3−277.2−512.3−483.3−347.7−310.3
= Real cash left for owners230.8156.3147.8256.4470.6−107.5225.8116.5
Real cash per share, US$$1.42$1.06$1.10$2.04$4.14−$1.01$2.23$1.20
Assets bought and sold, net0.00.00.00.00.00.00.016.0
Dividends paid0.00.00.0−47.6−75.5−118.7−112.2−107.7
Buybacks0.0−223.9−171.5−218.5−221.5−105.1−73.8−26.5
Debt after cash, year end−218.5−344.0−320.2−373.3−412.2−43.9−32.8−61.3
Shares, millions (diluted average)162.0147.8134.4125.8113.6106.3101.197.2

How the maths works, and what to be careful about

The words on this page

Real cash (true cash)
What was left in the bank each year after every bill, every tax payment and every well drilled. Not profit, and not "cash flow" as companies usually quote it, which leaves the drilling out. The strictest number there is.
Required return
The yearly return you insist on for taking the risk. A dollar promised in ten years is worth less than a dollar today; this rate says how much less. 9% is a common professional figure for a large Canadian producer; the reserve engineers use 10%.
Well life (reserve life)
How long the wells keep producing. After the life you choose, nothing is counted. Combined 2P reserves of 305.5 MMboe after the Frontera acquisition, against second-half 2026 guidance of 82,000 to 91,000 boe/d (about 31.6 MMboe a year), give roughly ten years. Colombian fields recycle quickly: the book has always been short and replaced through the drill bit.
What a share is worth
Every future year's cash, shrunk back to today's dollars at your required return, added up, less the debt, less the cost of cleaning up the wells, divided by the number of shares. Pay less than this and you earn more than your required return; pay more and you earn less.
Where the default growth comes from
The default 5 percent reflects the Frontera acquisition roughly doubling second-half 2026 production guidance to 82,000 to 91,000 boe/d against 44,701 boe/d averaged in 2025, tempered hard for steep Colombian decline rates and the debt the deal added.

The arithmetic, step by step

  1. Count the real cash each past year: cash generated by operations as reported, plus interest paid put back, minus rent on leases, minus every dollar spent on wells and plants. Buying and selling assets is shown separately.
  2. Project it. The starting cash you choose (an average of the history, or the latest year) grows at your growth dial for ten years, then at the long-run rate for as long as the wells keep producing. Nothing is counted after the well life ends.
  3. Bring it back to today. Each year's cash is shrunk by your required return, counted at mid-year because cash arrives through the year rather than on 31 December.
  4. Turn it into a share value. Add up the shrunk cash; take off net debt of US$907M; take off the US$342M cost of cleaning up the wells if that switch is on; divide by 96.2M shares.
  5. Work it backwards. "The growth today's price assumes" is the ten-year growth rate at which this start is worth exactly the share price.

Where the numbers come from

  • Operating cash flow is the audited cash provided by operating activities line in every year, after working capital moves. For 2018 to 2020 that differs sharply from the funds flow figures Parex's releases headline: working capital released US$131 million into 2018 (audited US$531.6 million against US$400.6 million of funds flow) and absorbed US$205 million in 2019 (audited US$365.1 million against US$570.5 million), so single-year starts in that stretch need care.
  • Diluted weighted share counts for 2021 to 2024 are derived from net income over diluted earnings per share and can be off by a percent or so from the filed counts.
  • Interest is the audited cash interest paid disclosure: US$1.5 million in 2018, nil from 2019 through 2023, then the 2024 and 2025 figures. Lease payments are the audited payments on lease obligation line, an office lease costing under US$1 million every year from 2019.
  • Capex is the investing-section PP&E plus E&E expenditures and excludes acquisitions and Parex's long-term crude inventory movements (US$140 million built in 2022, mostly drawn back down since). The US$16 million Cebucan property acquisition in 2025 sits in the acquisitions line, not capex.
  • Net debt before 2021 is the negative of Parex's reported working capital surplus (the company was net cash the whole time); from 2021 it is total debt less cash from aggregated balance sheets. The current US$906.6 million is Parex's own 30 June 2026 measure, which nets bank debt, senior notes and customer prepayments against working capital.
  • The Frontera acquisition closed on 1 June 2026, after the last year in the table. The history describes a smaller, debt-free company; today's Parex has about twice the production, US$906.6 million of net debt and decommissioning liabilities that jumped from US$89 million to US$341.6 million with the deal. The growth dial, not the history, has to carry that change.
  • Buybacks for 2018 are shown as zero; Parex's first buyback program only began on 21 December 2018.
  • The analyst target is a Canadian-dollar consensus converted at the same Bank of Canada rate as the share price.
  • Analyst targets: average US$22.38 across 7 analysts (stockanalysis.com analyst consensus of C$31.08, converted at the 1.3888 Bank of Canada rate, 2026-08-30).

For the technically minded

The method is the one used to evaluate capital projects, from Ted Lawrence, The Business Guide to Economic Evaluations: Projects, Leases, Tariffs and Acquisitions (2017). "Real cash" is the book's project cash flow (chapter 3) with depreciation, debt servicing and debt-like leases restructured out (chapters 4, 5 and 19); short operating leases stay in as a cost of producing, a chapter 19 judgment. The value per share follows the share-purchase evaluation of chapter 20: present value of the company's cash flows at the cost of capital (chapter 10), mid-year discounting (chapter 12), plus non-required assets, less net debt and the decommissioning liability. "What you gain or lose" is the bid-curve NPV of chapter 20; "when you get your money back" is the discounted payout of chapter 13; the bars follow the project profile of chapter 6. The reverse solve on growth is a plain reverse DCF.

Discount-rate anchors: 9% is a common cost-of-equity figure for a large Canadian producer and 10% is the reserve-report convention (PV10). The long-run rate defaults to 0% here: a depleting resource should not be assumed to grow forever, so anything above zero is a judgment you make with the dial.

Sources

Maple Groove Wealth Planners · prepared by Trevor Lawrence, Financial Advisor · every number on this page traces to the sources listed above or a dial you can see. For education, not investment advice.

This page illustrates a research process and is provided for general information only. It is not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are as at the dates shown and will change. Shares carry risk, including the possible loss of capital. Please speak with a qualified advisor about your own circumstances.